Ackman Longs NVDA; Burry Bets $400M Against It

Ackman's position is material. At current prices, 1.2M shares is roughly $1.1B notional — not a hedge, not a toe-in. Pershing Square runs concentrated books, and disclosing this publicly on X while Burry is sitting on the other side of it is a statement as much as a trade. Ackman has been vocal that AI infrastructure capex is still early innings; this is that thesis expressed in the single most liquid vehicle available.

Burry's $400M in puts looks like a big short, but the 13F is the wrong instrument to read it that way. The filing has a 45-day lag — those positions could be closed, rolled, or structured as spreads that limit his net short delta to a fraction of the notional. Burry has been early and wrong on NVDA before; he covered a 2023 put position before the stock doubled. The headline number is scarier than the actual exposure probably is.

What flips this: Burry's next 13F either confirming he held through earnings or showing he closed — that's the tell on whether this is a real directional bet or a hedge book. On Ackman's side, watch whether he adds after the next guide. If NVDA cuts forward revenue estimates and Ackman holds, the conviction read strengthens. If he trims, this was a trade, not a thesis.